AnalystMaster 1-0 BingPredicts and Boxing Day Predictions

BingPredicts challenge results

Last week we challenged BingPredicts over their Football Predictions over Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A predictions.

AnalystMaster wins the challenge with 49% of correct predictions vs. 44% for BingPredicts.

In Particular AnalystMaster correctly predicted Barcelona’s win over Real Madrid in El Clasico, or better anticipated the difficulties of Man United at Leicester

Boxing Day Predictions

You will find below our predictions and the ones from BingPredicts for Boxing Day.

They are very similar, we only disagree on the Watford-Leicester game where we predict a tough game with a Leicester win being more likely, whereas Bing bets on a Watford victory.

We also foresee Arsenal having a tough time at Crystal Palace in the last game too close to call, where Bing sees an easy Arsenal win.

Happy Boxing day everybody!

AnalystMaster

Premier League Week 20 AnalystMaster Bing
Home Away H D A H D A
Tottenham Southampton 60% 24% 16% 56% 28% 16%
Man United Burnley 62% 24% 15% 89% 5% 6%
Watford Leicester 32% 23% 45% 56% 28% 16%
Chelsea Brighton 59% 25% 16% 50% 42% 8%
West Brom Everton 44% 27% 30% 64%
Bournemouth West Ham 46% 24% 30% 48% 24% 28%
Huddersfield Stoke 48% 26% 26% 64%
Liverpool Swansea 62% 24% 14% 52% 28% 30%
Newcastle Man City 16% 22% 62% 17% 16% 67%
Crystal Palace Arsenal 36% 25% 39% 17% 16% 67%

Football Predictions: AnalystMaster vs. BingPredicts

Challenging Bing Predicts on Football Predictions

Bing Predicts prides itself at being great in forecasting the outcome of some events. A quick look at its wikipedia page shows that it predicted the winners from American Idol or The Voice with more than 80% accuracy, US elections with more than 90% accuracy and that they did a perfect 15 out of 15 predictions in the 2014 World Cup! Well done Bing Predicts!

At AnalystMaster we also have our Predicting algorithms. We decided to challenge Bing Predicts on the next European Football games by comparing our Predictions with theirs. Although our predictions match on most games, there are few significant differences including “El Clasico” between Real Madrid and Barcelona, Leicester vs. Manchester United or the next Bayern Munich and Juventus games.

See you next week for analysing the results!

AnalystMaster

Premier League Week 19

The first thing that strikes when looking at Bing Predicts forecasts is that it sometimes gives very important winning probabilities.

The Leicester vs. Man United game is a good example. Bing Predicts foresees an easy Man United victory (75%) whereas we think Jose Mouriho’s team will face a much tougher opposition from a team who just took Pep Guardiola’s Man City to penalty kicks in League Cup this week and will be benefiting from the Home Advantage.

Premier League Week 19 AnalystMaster Bing
Home Away H D A H D A
Arsenal Liverpool 48% 21% 31% 58% 28% 14%
Everton Chelsea 32% 24% 43% 17% 16% 67%
Stoke West Brom 33% 28% 39% 48%
Southampton Huddersfield 50% 25% 25% 42%
Swansea Crystal Palace 33% 30% 37% 34% 31% 35%
Man City Bournemouth 66% 19% 14% 89% 5% 6%
West Ham Newcastle 45% 27% 28% 55% 31% 14%
Brighton Watford 33% 26% 41% 29% 28% 43%
Burnley Tottenham 35% 28% 37% 8% 16% 76%
Leicester Man United 36% 26% 39% 6% 19% 75%

La Liga Week 17

Our algorithm disagrees with Bing Predicts regarding “El Clasico”. Bing Predicts bets on an clear victory from Real Madrid (56%), probably giving a lot of weight to the Home Advantage.

This could be surprising to who followed the two teams this year: Real Madrid has been struggling this year and is currently 4th of La Liga so far with 31 pts and losing to Tottenham in Champions League, whereas Barcelona has been outrageously dominating the championship with 42 pts and no defeat so far.

Our algorithm on the other side predicts that this game will be too close to call, giving Barcelona a narrow edge at 39% vs. 37% for a Read Madrid win.

La Liga Week 17 AnalystMaster Bing
Home Away H D A H D A
Levante Leganes 35% 28% 37%
Getafe Las Palmas 58% 24% 18% 81% 15% 4%
Real Sociedad Sevilla 50% 23% 27% 29% 28% 43%
Eibar Girona 38% 25% 37% 32% 35% 33%
Alaves Malaga 46% 26% 28% 33% 38% 29%
Betis Ath Bilbao 48% 23% 29% 34% 30% 36%
Espanyol Ath Madrid 28% 28% 45% 29% 28% 43%
Real Madrid Barcelona 37% 24% 39% 56% 28% 16%
Valencia Villarreal 62% 22% 17% 81%
La Coruna Celta Vigo 32% 24% 44% 29% 28% 43%

Serie A Week 18

Again in Serie A Bing Predicts gives very high probabilities to wins of Udinese (89%), Genoa (81%) or Napoli (89%) which seems quite bold for a game which is in the end quite random. Although we also believe these teams will win, we would not be ready to bet on victories with these odds.

We also predicts that Juventus and AC Milan will have a tougher opposition than Bing Predicts thinks with a winning probability of 42% and 45% vs. a bigger margin of 64% for Bing

Serie A Week 18 AnalystMaster Bing
Home Away H D A H D A
Chievo Bologna 41% 26% 33% 31% 36% 33%
Cagliari Fiorentina 34% 25% 41% 6% 19% 75%
Lazio Crotone 65% 20% 16% 89% 5% 6%
SPAL 2013 Torino 36% 25% 39% 25% 29% 46%
Genoa Benevento 54% 24% 23% 81% 15% 4%
Udinese Verona 46% 24% 30% 89% 5% 6%
Sassuolo Inter Milan 23% 27% 50% 17% 16% 67%
Napoli Sampdoria 59% 22% 19% 89% 5% 6%
AC Milan Atalanta 45% 27% 28% 64%
Juventus Roma 42% 24% 34% 64% 20% 16%

Ligue 1 Week 19

Here too Bing Predicts very high odds on some games, especially the 89% for Monaco vs. Rennes. Our algorithm also largely favours a Monaco win, but gives Rennes (who has been doing quite well in the last few games) more chances to draw or to even win that game.

We also think Amiens will exploit their Home Advantage to challenge Ranieri’s FC Nantes at home, and that Montpellier will bring a much tougher opposition to Bordeaux that Bing Predicts seems to believe.

Ligue 1 Week 19 AnalystMaster Bing
Home Away H D A H D A
Angers Dijon 42% 25% 33% 27% 33% 40%
Lille Nice 43% 28% 29% 56%
Toulouse Lyon 25% 24% 51% 21% 33% 46%
Amiens Nantes 48% 27% 25% 35% 23% 42%
Guingamp St Etienne 55% 27% 18% 42% 25% 33%
Marseille Troyes 61% 21% 18% 55% 31% 14%
Monaco Rennes 68% 18% 14% 89% 5% 6%
Paris SG Caen 75% 16% 9% 89% 5% 6%
Bordeaux Montpellier 39% 29% 32% 55% 31% 14%
Metz Strasbourg 30% 24% 46% 29% 21% 50%

Bundesliga Week 18

Our algorithm predicts a tough time for Bayern Munich at Leverkusen, with a game too close too call. This prediction sounds quite bold when we look at the rankings today: Bayern Munich is at the top of the Bundesliga with 42 pts and Leverkusen at a distance in 4th place with 28 pts. Betting on a Munich win or at least a draw would sound like the reasonable prediction, however we have chosen to leave the algorithm’s results as is as we think that the fact that it gives this game almost equal odds is interesting in itself.

Bing has yet to provide its predictions for Bundesliga matches at this time.

Bundesliga Week 18 AnalystMaster Bing
Home Away H D A H D A
Leverkusen Bayern Munich 39% 24% 37%
Werder Bremen Hoffenheim 39% 24% 37%
Frankfurt Freiburg 52% 22% 26%
Stuttgart Herta Berlin 42% 29% 28%
Augsburg Hamburg 53% 23% 24%
Hannover Mainz 58% 22% 20%
Leipzig Schalke 04 49% 23% 27%
Koln M’gladbach 39% 24% 37%
Dortmund Wolfsburg 56% 22% 23%