Challenging Bing Predicts on Football Predictions
Bing Predicts prides itself at being great in forecasting the outcome of some events. A quick look at its wikipedia page shows that it predicted the winners from American Idol or The Voice with more than 80% accuracy, US elections with more than 90% accuracy and that they did a perfect 15 out of 15 predictions in the 2014 World Cup! Well done Bing Predicts!
At AnalystMaster we also have our Predicting algorithms. We decided to challenge Bing Predicts on the next European Football games by comparing our Predictions with theirs. Although our predictions match on most games, there are few significant differences including “El Clasico” between Real Madrid and Barcelona, Leicester vs. Manchester United or the next Bayern Munich and Juventus games.
See you next week for analysing the results!
AnalystMaster
Premier League Week 19
The first thing that strikes when looking at Bing Predicts forecasts is that it sometimes gives very important winning probabilities.
The Leicester vs. Man United game is a good example. Bing Predicts foresees an easy Man United victory (75%) whereas we think Jose Mouriho’s team will face a much tougher opposition from a team who just took Pep Guardiola’s Man City to penalty kicks in League Cup this week and will be benefiting from the Home Advantage.
Premier League Week 19 |
AnalystMaster |
Bing |
Home |
Away |
H |
D |
A |
H |
D |
A |
Arsenal |
Liverpool |
48% |
21% |
31% |
58% |
28% |
14% |
Everton |
Chelsea |
32% |
24% |
43% |
17% |
16% |
67% |
Stoke |
West Brom |
33% |
28% |
39% |
48% |
|
|
Southampton |
Huddersfield |
50% |
25% |
25% |
42% |
|
|
Swansea |
Crystal Palace |
33% |
30% |
37% |
34% |
31% |
35% |
Man City |
Bournemouth |
66% |
19% |
14% |
89% |
5% |
6% |
West Ham |
Newcastle |
45% |
27% |
28% |
55% |
31% |
14% |
Brighton |
Watford |
33% |
26% |
41% |
29% |
28% |
43% |
Burnley |
Tottenham |
35% |
28% |
37% |
8% |
16% |
76% |
Leicester |
Man United |
36% |
26% |
39% |
6% |
19% |
75% |
La Liga Week 17
Our algorithm disagrees with Bing Predicts regarding “El Clasico”. Bing Predicts bets on an clear victory from Real Madrid (56%), probably giving a lot of weight to the Home Advantage.
This could be surprising to who followed the two teams this year: Real Madrid has been struggling this year and is currently 4th of La Liga so far with 31 pts and losing to Tottenham in Champions League, whereas Barcelona has been outrageously dominating the championship with 42 pts and no defeat so far.
Our algorithm on the other side predicts that this game will be too close to call, giving Barcelona a narrow edge at 39% vs. 37% for a Read Madrid win.
La Liga Week 17 |
AnalystMaster |
Bing |
Home |
Away |
H |
D |
A |
H |
D |
A |
Levante |
Leganes |
35% |
28% |
37% |
|
|
|
Getafe |
Las Palmas |
58% |
24% |
18% |
81% |
15% |
4% |
Real Sociedad |
Sevilla |
50% |
23% |
27% |
29% |
28% |
43% |
Eibar |
Girona |
38% |
25% |
37% |
32% |
35% |
33% |
Alaves |
Malaga |
46% |
26% |
28% |
33% |
38% |
29% |
Betis |
Ath Bilbao |
48% |
23% |
29% |
34% |
30% |
36% |
Espanyol |
Ath Madrid |
28% |
28% |
45% |
29% |
28% |
43% |
Real Madrid |
Barcelona |
37% |
24% |
39% |
56% |
28% |
16% |
Valencia |
Villarreal |
62% |
22% |
17% |
81% |
|
|
La Coruna |
Celta Vigo |
32% |
24% |
44% |
29% |
28% |
43% |
Serie A Week 18
Again in Serie A Bing Predicts gives very high probabilities to wins of Udinese (89%), Genoa (81%) or Napoli (89%) which seems quite bold for a game which is in the end quite random. Although we also believe these teams will win, we would not be ready to bet on victories with these odds.
We also predicts that Juventus and AC Milan will have a tougher opposition than Bing Predicts thinks with a winning probability of 42% and 45% vs. a bigger margin of 64% for Bing
Serie A Week 18 |
AnalystMaster |
Bing |
Home |
Away |
H |
D |
A |
H |
D |
A |
Chievo |
Bologna |
41% |
26% |
33% |
31% |
36% |
33% |
Cagliari |
Fiorentina |
34% |
25% |
41% |
6% |
19% |
75% |
Lazio |
Crotone |
65% |
20% |
16% |
89% |
5% |
6% |
SPAL 2013 |
Torino |
36% |
25% |
39% |
25% |
29% |
46% |
Genoa |
Benevento |
54% |
24% |
23% |
81% |
15% |
4% |
Udinese |
Verona |
46% |
24% |
30% |
89% |
5% |
6% |
Sassuolo |
Inter Milan |
23% |
27% |
50% |
17% |
16% |
67% |
Napoli |
Sampdoria |
59% |
22% |
19% |
89% |
5% |
6% |
AC Milan |
Atalanta |
45% |
27% |
28% |
64% |
|
|
Juventus |
Roma |
42% |
24% |
34% |
64% |
20% |
16% |
Ligue 1 Week 19
Here too Bing Predicts very high odds on some games, especially the 89% for Monaco vs. Rennes. Our algorithm also largely favours a Monaco win, but gives Rennes (who has been doing quite well in the last few games) more chances to draw or to even win that game.
We also think Amiens will exploit their Home Advantage to challenge Ranieri’s FC Nantes at home, and that Montpellier will bring a much tougher opposition to Bordeaux that Bing Predicts seems to believe.
Ligue 1 Week 19 |
AnalystMaster |
Bing |
Home |
Away |
H |
D |
A |
H |
D |
A |
Angers |
Dijon |
42% |
25% |
33% |
27% |
33% |
40% |
Lille |
Nice |
43% |
28% |
29% |
56% |
|
|
Toulouse |
Lyon |
25% |
24% |
51% |
21% |
33% |
46% |
Amiens |
Nantes |
48% |
27% |
25% |
35% |
23% |
42% |
Guingamp |
St Etienne |
55% |
27% |
18% |
42% |
25% |
33% |
Marseille |
Troyes |
61% |
21% |
18% |
55% |
31% |
14% |
Monaco |
Rennes |
68% |
18% |
14% |
89% |
5% |
6% |
Paris SG |
Caen |
75% |
16% |
9% |
89% |
5% |
6% |
Bordeaux |
Montpellier |
39% |
29% |
32% |
55% |
31% |
14% |
Metz |
Strasbourg |
30% |
24% |
46% |
29% |
21% |
50% |
Bundesliga Week 18
Our algorithm predicts a tough time for Bayern Munich at Leverkusen, with a game too close too call. This prediction sounds quite bold when we look at the rankings today: Bayern Munich is at the top of the Bundesliga with 42 pts and Leverkusen at a distance in 4th place with 28 pts. Betting on a Munich win or at least a draw would sound like the reasonable prediction, however we have chosen to leave the algorithm’s results as is as we think that the fact that it gives this game almost equal odds is interesting in itself.
Bing has yet to provide its predictions for Bundesliga matches at this time.
Bundesliga Week 18 |
AnalystMaster |
Bing |
Home |
Away |
H |
D |
A |
H |
D |
A |
Leverkusen |
Bayern Munich |
39% |
24% |
37% |
|
|
|
Werder Bremen |
Hoffenheim |
39% |
24% |
37% |
|
|
|
Frankfurt |
Freiburg |
52% |
22% |
26% |
|
|
|
Stuttgart |
Herta Berlin |
42% |
29% |
28% |
|
|
|
Augsburg |
Hamburg |
53% |
23% |
24% |
|
|
|
Hannover |
Mainz |
58% |
22% |
20% |
|
|
|
Leipzig |
Schalke 04 |
49% |
23% |
27% |
|
|
|
Koln |
M’gladbach |
39% |
24% |
37% |
|
|
|
Dortmund |
Wolfsburg |
56% |
22% |
23% |
|
|
|
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